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Would-be
candidates preparing for 2008
By Jill
Lawrence, USA
TODAY
WASHINGTON — The first speech of the 2008
presidential campaign has already been given — by John Edwards. His
aggressive, future-oriented introduction to John Kerry's concession speech
left little doubt that he'll try to stay on the public stage.
Both parties will have open fields for their
nominations next time. Some prospects are already visible.
Two ambitious Republicans, Senate Majority Leader Bill
Frist of Tennessee
and former New York City
mayor Rudy Giuliani, appeared Wednesday on five networks apiece.
And Howard Dean, the blunt anti-war Democrat who
dominated the pre-primary season, claimed in an e-mail to supporters of his
grass-roots politics group that "we have begun to revive democracy."
The evidence: A new Democratic governor in Montana and successful local candidates
Dean supported "in state after state."
And then there's New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, the
former first lady and a star by any measure. She raised more than $10 million
for Kerry and party work on his behalf, and did everything his campaign
asked of her. That included appearing on three Sunday shows the day before
the start of the Republican convention, acting as lead spokesman for the
ticket after the Oct. 8 debate in St. Louis, and stepping in on less than
24 hours' notice when Kerry had to cancel a speech to the National
Education Association (he was announcing Edwards as his choice of running
mate).
Clinton also held
rallies throughout Pennsylvania, Florida and New
Jersey for five days at the end of the campaign,
and did interviews with local TV affiliates selected by the Kerry team. She
raised money for House, Senate and gubernatorial candidates as well.
In the wake of Kerry's defeat, Democrats have been
pondering how they can appeal to more voters on issues of national security
and moral values.
Bill Clinton grew up in Arkansas with cultural conservatives,
Democratic strategist Paul Begala says: "He
knew those folks. He'd been to tent revivals. He was utterly at ease and
completely connected to middle class folks' cultural values."
Kerry's Senate voting record provided endless fodder
for President Bush and underscored why governors win the presidency at a
higher rate than legislators. Finally, there are issues of simplicity and
salesmanship. One analyst, William Saletan of
Slate, says that's why Bush won and recommends Democrats clear the field
for a candidate with similar attributes — Edwards.
Edwards, the son of a textile mill worker who rose to
wealth and prominence as a trial lawyer, is a first-term senator who chose
not to run for re-election this year. Out of public office, it could be
hard for him to build his resume and stay visible.
Still, Edwards pledged Wednesday to carry on the
battle he started in his primary campaign to unite what he called the two Americas:
one for the rich and connected, the other for everyone else. "We are
going to continue fighting for that one America," he said,
"and we're not going to stop until we get there."
Edwards fills the bill geographically if Democrats
decide to shun the Northeast. Other possibilities include governors Mark
Warner of Virginia, Phil Bredesen of Tennessee and Mike Easley of North Carolina. Warner led a Republican
Legislature to revamp his state's tax system. Bredesen
revived Nashville
as mayor and won the governorship with 51% in 2002. Easley easily won
re-election this week with 55% of the vote.
Hillary Clinton is on every list and would be an early
favorite. Her approval rating in New
York went from 38% in February 2001 to a high of
61% last month, suggesting she has expanded her appeal beyond Democratic
diehards. But it's unclear whether she could do that nationally.
"She's still a New Yorker, and people still view
her as liberal," said independent analyst Stuart Rothenberg, who
publishes a political newsletter. Regardless of her origins and voting
record, he said, those perceptions are "a significant problem"
for her.
Other Democratic possibilities include Gov. Rod
Blagojevich of Illinois, Gov. Janet
Napolitano of Arizona, Gov. Bill
Richardson of New Mexico, Gov. Tom Vilsack of Iowa and
Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana.
Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm is considered
impressive but was born in Canada.
She could not run unless Congress and state legislatures amend the
Constitution.
The three most prominent Republican prospects are Giuliani, Arizona
Sen. John McCain and California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger. But
Schwarzenegger, born in Austria,
has the same problem as Granholm. And all three
are "probably unacceptable to 80% of the party" because they are
moderate to liberal on some issues, said Rothenberg.
Other prospects include Frist, Virginia
Sen. George Allen, Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, New York Gov. George
Pataki, and Nebraska Sen. Chuck Hagel.
Conservatives Frist and Allen, chairman of the
GOP's Senate campaign committee, can claim credit for enlarging their
majority from 51 to 55 senators. Pataki, a social moderate, could bring New York into play
for Republicans.
Hagel is an outspoken Vietnam
War veteran in the McCain mold. Without mentioning Kerry, who was skewered
for his Senate record, he pinpointed that as a potential problem for
himself. "When you accumulate a record of thousands and thousands of
votes, there's a certain amount of nuance and you can pick apart a record
pretty easily," Hagel said during the
Republican convention. "You can make about any case you want to
make."
Mark Mellman, Kerry's
pollster, said whoever emerges as the Republican nominee will be at a
disadvantage — relatively unknown and running after eight years of
"virtually complete Republican rule" of the entire government.
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